New Developments in Book Publishing 2012-2013

Q: What are recent changes in the book publishing industry?

7 Select Developments in Book Publishing 2012-2013 from Mark Gilroy

How accurate are best seller lists?

A: Not very.

But that doesn't mean they aren't important. They are great for publicity and will probably help generate more sales. Many people peruse the various lists to help them determine what to pick up next. They are fabulous for an author's ego. Admit it, wouldn't you like to have the tag New York Times Bestselling Author under your name every time you published a book? All it takes is once!

Why aren't they accurate?

Book publishers don't use a upc code on the back of their books. Why? There is an ancient custom that retailers should be able to set their own prices. Instead most publishers use an ISBN number and code. Some use nothing at all. That means a whole new reporting system is needed to gather point-of-purchase data. The biggest collector of this data is Nielson's BookScan system - modelled after music industry's SoundScan.

But not all retailers feed their data to BookScan and not all bestseller lists use BookScan anyway. The New York Times has the most prestigious list, which is based on several large chains, a number of independent booksellers, and select mass market accounts. USA Today and the Wall Street Journal employ similar methods of sampling, including judicious use of BookScan. Ditto Publisher's Weekly. However, many large booksellers -like Sams and a number of other mass market retail chains, schools, Christian bookstores, rackjobbers, e-books, and high volume tabletop display marketers - don't provide their data to BookScan. The largest Christian retail chain doesn't even provide its data to the CBA (Christian Booksellers Association) bestseller list. One wouldn't, of course, expect the lists to account for other 'special markets' including direct sales nor organizational and author purchases. The good news is that Amazon sales are now included with BookScan - but several of the lists resisted using Amazon's sales until the last few years.

What percentage of book sales are reflected on bestseller lists? No one knows for sure based on all the above reasons. I've heard estimates ranging from 30% to 50%. Anecdotally, one author friend has now sold three million copies of a single book. Of those, 100 thousand have sold in traditional book selling settings and the other 2.9 million have sold direct to consumer, business to business, or through back-of-room sales when he speaks.

Because bestseller lists do create positive publicity and sales momentum there are more than a few occasions when authors and publishers have attempted to manipulate their book's placement on the lists. For example, back when it was harder to track single store sales, an author or agent might order the five or ten or twenty or thirty thousand copies of a new book needed for speaking engagements through a single bookstore to 'force' a book onto the list. I'm sure this has helped ongoing sales just for the fact that accounts would see the book show up on a list and order more store copies. But point-of-purchase data, at least within a chain, is now sophisticated enough to spot this as an anomaly, not a trend. The New York Times at least used to put a dagger symbol next to books that had large bulk orders. (Do they still do that?)

There is a publisher axiom that says you can get a book on any bestsellers list through marketing but in order for it to stay on the list it has to be a great book. Longevity of a book on various bestseller lists is almost always an indicator that the book has real 'legs'. Or, in the case of books that sell hundreds of thousands or even millions of units and never show up on a list, they either need to be great or the author needs to have a great platform for moving product.

So bestseller lists are important indicators of what's happening in major swatches of the book selling environment but they have information gaps in that environment and don't even attempt to measure what's happening in special markets, so they can't tell the whole story of which books sell most.

Q: Do I need an agent?

A: It depends.

In the "old days" of publishing, let's say prior to 1990, there was a common publishing phrase that referred to unsolicited manuscripts as something that "came in over the transom." (A transom is literally a hinged window over a door. Think of the book return slot at a library.) In other words, a writer sent in his or her manuscript to a mail drop, which then ended up in one of several 4-foot high stacks in a junior editor's office, and which after six or seven months of collecting dust was either rejected with a form letter - or voila, it got discovered and published. One way many publishing companies handled projects over the transom was to hire college interns to sift through hundreds or thousands of manuscripts over summer break and separate the winners from the losers.

Many publishers were still leery of agents in the mid-90s. (Many still are.) Since acquisitions is the lifeblood of publishing, they preferred to take the initiative and go find someone with a marketing platform to promote their own work; if that person couldn't write, the publisher would help them write it with a ghost writer or collaborator. If an author didn't have a platform but had exceptional verifiable credentials - for example a professor at a university with a reputation for expertise in a particular discipline - the publisher would still take the initiative. Both of these and many other scenarios still happen all the time but even when the publisher is responsible for basic ideation, it is more common to work through an agent.

The worry for publishers back in the "old days" was that once an agent was involved, he or she would demand too much money up front as an advance and too much in royalty rates and thus damage the economies of publishing. (Okay, the publishers were right on this point for many deals.) But even with that concern, sometime in the mid and late 90s, agents went from being a luxury for big name authors who wanted to sell projects to one of the big publishing companies, to a near necessity for almost all writers interested in placing a project with almost any size publishing house.

Today, many publishers will no longer receive unsolicited manuscripts from authors. They prefer and require agent involvement. In a sense, the agent, for many publishing companies, has become a way to streamline the acquisitions process - and maybe even reduce head count. The hardcore, full time, certified agent - and yes, there are many former editors and other publishing staffers who moonlight at agenting - earns his or her commission (more often 15%, up from 10% even a decade ago), along with a trustworthy reputation that opens doors to a variety of acquisitions editors and publishers, by carefully screening authors and projects and vouching to the publisher that the author can deliver both great material and can help market it.

What does this mean for the aspiring author? It means that finding an agent who will represent your work can feel - and be - as hard as selling the project.

So, do you need an agent? The answer is YES, if ...

1. You don't have inside connections with one or more publishers who are already disposed to buying a project from you.

2. You haven't been approached by a publisher to write a project, which is a dream come true for anyone who has toiled with speculative work (you still might be better off with an agent if the deal seems fishy in some way).

3. You don't have a large established platform (connection to a well defined audience that is motivated to buy from you) whereby you can guarantee a certain number of sales. (Some publishers will make a deal with this kind of author if the author commits to buying X number of copies, which becomes part of the contract. Some authors, particularly if they speak to large audiences, will then determine that they'll make more money self-publishing.)

4. You want to be with a larger publisher (not necessarily the right option for every author or project) that will present your work to bookstores and other retailers. (I have a friend who has sold more than 1 million copies of his self-published book. He still feels disatisfaction because the books he did with big time publishers did not do well in the trade.)

5. You have a big idea and a big audience that loves you, but don't know the first thing about book publishing and aren't really fond of writing.

That list isn't close to being exhaustive and even if you can turn each point around and answer it conversely, you still may not need or want an agent. And acquiring the services of a well connected agent who really believes in your work is no guarantee that your work will be purchased by a publisher at all, much less at terms that feel reasonable to you. Plus, today there are many more professional quality self-publishing options available to the aspiring author. You can even go on the internet and typset and design a cover for your own book with a service like lulu.com.

So do you need an agent? Unless you have the ways and means to sell a self-published work or have incredible connections within the publishing community, the answer is probably yes. I'd wish you well in finding the right agent for you - but I'll save that for another post!